An Inside Look at the Economic Research Service

The Economic Research Service (ERS) is part of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and covers an extensive collection of fruit and vegetable market data sets and reports as part of the USDA’s Commodity Outlook Program. The Commodity Outlook Program has been providing information to policymakers and the general public about fruit and vegetable markets since at least 1937.

Although ERS was established in 1961, its story goes back to the USDA’s Bureau of Agricultural Economics set up in 1922 to organize the department’s economic research into one agency. Today’s ERS includes research on such topics as food safety and nutrition, natural resources, trade and international agriculture, and the environment, providing economic analysis and data to farmers, consumers, and policymakers as new technology and changes in domestic policy alter the global marketplace.

As its name suggests, the ERS is a statistical and research agency. Within the agency, fruit and vegetable market outlook programs are a source of information on topics such as prices, trade, and supply and use. Analysis is useful to not only understand the economics of domestic and global markets, but for anticipating market developments.

COVERAGE
The overall purpose of the ERS fruit and vegetable outlook program is to monitor current market conditions and analyze major issues that may impact these markets. Coverage includes data and market intelligence for over 400 produce crops and product forms (e.g., fresh apples, apple juice, fresh-market tomatoes, frozen spinach, etc.) extended across fruit, vegetables, melons, dry pulse crops (dry beans, dry peas, and lentils), and tree nuts.

Data and economic information provided by the outlook programs are available to users both inside and outside the USDA. Commodity-specific data on production, prices, trade, or other market factors can be used to forecast market outcomes. Knowledge of these market factors can provide context and understanding for those who may not be well informed about a particular commodity, or are exploring new markets.

Requests for information often increase around events that move markets, such as holiday purchase patterns, after unusual weather events, or food safety issues. Information provided by ERS offers perspective and comparatives to help interpret the impacts. A recent example of how this data is used is an ERS web feature, “California Drought: Farm and Food Impacts.”

Fruit and vegetable programs of the ERS are also a source of official USDA per capita use data. Supply and utilization data are estimated annually for approximately 160 individual commodities such as tomatoes, apples, lettuce, oranges, etc. Individual commodity estimates are often combined as well, to generate data for broad categories; for example, fruit, vegetables, melons, dry pulse crops, and tree nuts, or fresh-market fruit and vegetables and processed fruit and vegetables. Utilization is a measure of net domestic supply available for consumption—a proxy for actual consumption since ERS does not survey consumers.

Trends in per capita utilization provide an indication of changes in domestic markets. Average domestic use of fruit has reached almost 252 pounds per person between 2010 and 2014. Over the same period, the total amount of vegetables available for consumption for each person in the United States was 382 pounds. Despite ongoing drought and water shortages in California, where about 40 percent of vegetables and dry pulse crops are grown, total U.S. volume rose 5 percent over 2013 as the harvested area expanded. Increased production was offset by robust export volumes, which reduced domestic availability.